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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://chur.chu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29469


    Title: 以時間數列ARIMA模式分析及預測台灣地區景氣對策信號
    Authors: 羅琪
    Lo, Chi
    Contributors: 應用統計學系
    Applied Statistics
    Keywords: 時間數列分析;ARIMA模式;景氣對策信號
    time series analysis;ARIMA model;monitoring indicator
    Date: 2010
    Issue Date: 2014-06-27 00:30:33 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 景氣對策信號是以類似交通號誌之5種不同信號燈表示目前景氣狀況，由經建會按月定期發布的景氣指標統計之一，具有簡單、淺顯易懂的特性，故廣為社會各界所用。是社會各界了解景氣概況與脈動的重要依據，也是政府判斷景氣榮枯的參考指標，並藉由不同燈號可提示政府應採取之對策。由於景氣對策信號具有時間數列的特質，本研究試圖透過時間數列分析的方法，找出較佳的景氣對策信號預測模式，最終目的在於替臺灣地區景氣對策信號建構出一個最適當的預測模式。資料是由中華民國統計資訊網所取得之1984年1月到2008年9月共297筆的景氣對策信號
    Monitoring indicator uses five different signals which are similar to the traffic light to show the prosperity and recession of the market. Because of its simplicity and comprehensibility, the indexes declared monthly by Council for Economic Planning and
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Applied Statistics] Seminar Papers

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