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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://chur.chu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/29459


    Title: 台灣地區消費者物價指數的分析與預測
    Authors: 羅琪
    Lo, Chi
    Contributors: 應用統計學系
    Applied Statistics
    Keywords: 消費者物價指數;指數平滑模式;ARIMA模式
    consumer price index;exponential smoothing model;ARIMA model
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2014-06-27 00:30:08 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 由於「物價指數」和「通貨膨脹」有密切的關係，且消費者物價指數是衡量物價水準變化的指標，因此若能為消費者物價指數建構一預測模式，可做為政府及早提出平抑物價及通貨膨脹對策的依據。本研究試圖透過時間數列分析的方法，找出較佳的消費者物價指數預測模式。研究方法同時採一般時間數列資料常用的自迴歸整合移動平均(ARIMA)時間數列分析模式與古典的時間數列分析模式，最終目的在於替臺灣地區消費者物價指數建構出一個最適當的預測模式。
    資料是由中華民國統計資訊網所取得之1981年1月至2009年9月共29年345筆的消費者物價
    Since “the consumer price index (CPI)” and “the inflation” have close relationship and the CPI is an index to measure the change of price level. Therefore, if one can construct a forecast model for the CPI, it may provide the government to propose early p
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Applied Statistics] Seminar Papers

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